D+8 biased AP poll shows Obama leads Romney by just one point

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mitt-romney-paul-ryan-2012-logoThere they go again. The AP is trying to fudge the numbers to make Obama seem invincible. Problem for them is, even with their D+8 sample, Obama only gets 47% of the vote and Mitt Romney gets 46% of the vote. As is typical for the AP, their sample size is seriously biased. They used a sample of 31% Democrats, 23% Republicans and 30% independents giving the Democrats a plus 8 advantage. Compare this with recent elections. In the Obamamania wave of 2008, the voter turnout was D+7. In 2010 the voter turnout was split 35% for Democrat and Republican. Doesn’t anyone really think now that Obama has a record that the voter turnout in November is going to be higher than 2008? If Obama is lucky and enough dead voters turn out to vote, he’ll be lucky if the voter turnout in November is D+1 pr D+2. So yet again, this poll when analyzed without the leftist blinders on shows more bad news for Obama.

Not much else has changed. Obama’s approval is 49/49 after being 49/48 in June, with both strong approval and strong disapproval ticking up slightly. Obama voters are slightly more certain of their vote than in June, but the two are otherwise even on that question. The two candidates are in a virtual tie on who’s best to handle the economy (Romney up 46/45, a reverse from June), but Romney is up seven on the budget deficit, 48/41.