All throughout this primary cycle, despite all the Trump-Massie back and forth, Massie was the clear favorite, at least in the prediction markets to win tomorrow’s Kentucky 04 primary, rather easily.. But something has changed in recent days.. And now those same prediction markets have Massie losing to his opponent 60% to 40% at the time of this post.
I haven’t followed this race closely, but you can’t help but notice it every once in awhile when it’s constantly on the news and on social media.
Of course, predication markets aren’t always right.. Remember, they all had Kamala winning on election night in 2024.
Big momentum shift in Kentucky’s 4th District GOP primary!
Prediction markets now give Ed Gallrein a 60%+ chance of defeating incumbent Thomas Massie — up sharply in recent days.
Just a week ago, Massie was sitting around 70%.My, how things have changed quickly.
Who wins… pic.twitter.com/Rvz8rpmc6L
— Paul A. Szypula 🇺🇸 (@Bubblebathgirl) May 18, 2026
The creepy weirdo Thomas Massie's chances of winning tomorrow have gone from 71% ten days ago to 44% today!
If he loses tomorrow, it will mark the biggest and fastest political collapse in the history of America! pic.twitter.com/bkFjTIkZZE
— Vince Langman (@LangmanVince) May 18, 2026