All I hear these days is that “Prediction markets predict…..” in politics and it’s beyond annoying.. They were off in 2022, off in 2024 predicting Kamala Harris to win over Trump, wrong this year (as an example in the Wisconsin communist primary), and they will be wrong in next week’s midterm elections.
A perfect example of why you should never trust these things is last night’s rigged election in Brazil… Bolsonaro was favored more than 2:1 to win the election, before Lula’s personal attorney, now sitting on the Supreme Court extending vote hours to help his buddy steal the election down there.
Prediction markets aren’t crystal balls — they’re casinos with a news feed. Brazil just proved it: Flávio Bolsonaro led at sixty-eight percent, and hours later Lula was at eighty-one. Same election, same voters, wildly different numbers. If your favorite podcast is sponsored by Kalshi, ask yourself why they keep repeating those odds like gospel. Your vote is the only prediction that actually counts. Don’t let a screen tell you your vote doesn’t matter. Go vote.
#vote #Conservative #Republican #Midterms #MAGA— Nelio J. Diaz (@neliodiaz07) October 25, 2026