With five weeks to go before the recall election, and COVID cases spiking in California, the laughingstock of the country, Gavin Newsom is really in trouble. By a 50%-41% margin, according to the most recent SurveyUSA poll, Californians want to recall Newsom by a 9 point margin. Corrupt crooked Newsom better get to work on his ballot harvesting fraud, or he may actually lose the recall election. He chickened out of a debate against four GOP contender. Even a plurality of Hispanic voters, want Newsom out.
There is one fly in the ointment though. With 47 candidates splitting the vote to replace Newsom, a communist Democrat is slightly ahead of Larry Elder to be the replacement. There are far too many candidates, running and splitting the GOP vote and draining votes from Elder.
The unserious candidate Bruce Jenner is only polling at 4%, but that takes away votes from Larry Elder, who is my choice to replace Newsom.
Among minorities, Asian-Americans are Newsom’s strongest supporters with 62 percent saying they will vote against the recall measure. But Hispanics are about split on keeping Newsom in office with 47 percent supporting the recall and 41 percent opposing it.
Whites strongly back kicking Newsom out of office by a 56-35 margin. And opposition to Newsom appears to have united the genders. The poll showed 52 percent of men and 50 percent of women want him gone.
Older voters and unvaccinated voters are strongly in favor of recalling Newsom with 57 percent and 67 percent respectively supporting the recall.
It’s true that we’re still weeks from Election Day, but the crosstabs in this poll look absolutely horrible for Newsom. His efforts to portray the recall campaign as a partisan exercise have failed miserably. If he survives, it will likely be by the slimmest of margins.
What began as a bunch of parents and concerned citizens with no money, no organization, and little hope of succeeding has since caught fire and has the sitting governor of California fighting for his political life. The press has portrayed the effort as a joke, a bunch of right-wing rubes from the northern part of the state trying to overturn the establishment.